Updated SERVM and RESOLVE Analysis Presentation – January 2024

The Updated SERVM and RESOLVE Analysis Presentation provides insights into the modeling and analysis of California's energy system, focusing on reliability and emissions metrics.

• It includes findings on greenhouse gas emissions and reliability outcomes for different planning scenarios.
• The presentation highlights updates made since the October 2023 Ruling, including adjustments to modeling inputs and assumptions.
• Key metrics such as Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for various years, including 2026, 2030, and 2035.

The Updated SERVM and RESOLVE Analysis plays a crucial role in shaping California's energy planning by providing data-driven insights into future energy needs and resource allocations.

• The analysis helps identify potential reliability issues and greenhouse gas emissions associated with different energy portfolios.
• It informs decision-making for the Preferred System Plan (PSP) and Transmission Planning Process (TPP), ensuring compliance with state emissions targets.
• Stakeholders can use the findings to optimize resource planning and improve system reliability.

The key findings of the Updated SERVM and RESOLVE Analysis Presentation include significant insights into California's energy reliability and emissions.

• For 2035, the analysis indicates a Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) of 0.13 days/year, slightly above the reliability target.
• Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to exceed previous estimates, prompting further calibration between models.
• The presentation also outlines the impact of electric vehicle charging loads on energy demand and reliability.

The Updated SERVM and RESOLVE Analysis addresses greenhouse gas emissions by evaluating the emissions outcomes of various energy portfolios.

• The analysis indicates that emissions from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) are projected to be higher than previous RESOLVE estimates by approximately 1.8 to 4.6 million metric tons per year.
• It highlights the need for ongoing calibration and adjustments to modeling assumptions to achieve state emissions targets.
• Strategies for reducing emissions include optimizing resource selection and improving energy efficiency.

Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) is a key reliability metric used in the Updated SERVM and RESOLVE Analysis to assess the reliability of California's energy system.

• LOLE represents the expected number of days per year when the system is unable to meet demand.
• For the 2035 scenario, LOLE is projected at 0.13 days/year, indicating a slight reliability concern.
• The analysis suggests that adjustments in resource planning and transmission capacity could mitigate LOLE issues.

Electric vehicle (EV) loads significantly impact the Updated SERVM and RESOLVE Analysis by increasing overall energy demand, particularly during nighttime hours.

• The analysis shows that EV charging loads dominate the demand profile, especially in 2035 and 2039.
• This increased demand poses challenges for reliability, as it can lead to higher Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) values.
• Strategies to manage this impact include optimizing charging schedules and enhancing grid capacity.